Statistical Decision Theory
Formulation of decision problems; criteria for optimality: maximum expected utility and minimax. Axiomatic foundations of expected utility; coherence and the axioms of probability (the Dutch Book theorem). Elicitation of probabilities and utilities. The value of information. Estimation and hypothesis testing as decision problems: risk, sufficiency, completeness and admissibility. Stein estimation. Bayes decision functions and their properties. Minimax analysis and improper priors. Decision theoretic Bayesian experimental design. Combining evidence and group decisions. Prerequisite: Statistical Science 732 or consent of instructor.