Ph.D. Student, Economics DepartmentUC Irvine
U.S. Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates whether government spending multipliers are time-varying. The multipliers are measured using time-varying parameter (TVP) local projections. This paper uses a simple modification to local projections that corrects for the inherent autocorrelated errors in local projections. The results indicate that there is evidence of time variation in government spending multipliers and that the results of previous studies should be seriously questioned. The results also indicate that there is significant time variation in the strength of Blanchard-Perotti and defense news identified shocks.