STA103 Probability and Statistical Inference (MINOR UPDATES STILL LIKELY!!!)
Section 001
Fall 2009



NEWS



Instructor:
C. Macaro, 213 Old Chemistry Building
Office Hours:
Tu: 2:30-4:30
Lecture:
Tu, Th, 1:15-2:30. Social Sciences 139
Labs
Section 01, F 8:30-9:45, Old Chem 01 (Fernando)
Section 02, F 10:05-11:20, Old Chem 01 (Fernando)
Section 03, F 11:40-12:55, Old Chem 01 (Kurtis)
Section 04, F 1:15-2:30, Old Chem 01 (Ken)
Section 05, F 2:50-4:05, Old Chem 01 (Ken)
TA schedule at the SECC (211A Old Chemistry Building)
Text:
Wonnacott, T. H., and Wonnacott, R. J., Introductory Statistics 5th Ed. Wiley, New York, ISBN 978-0-471-61518-7.
Final Exam:
You are required to work alone and for only the specified time period. Some topics not expressly in the book but in the homework will be on the test, such as probability densities and integration. Calculator and formula sheet allowed.
Sunday Dec 13, 2-5 PM at the regular classroom (schedule)
Final Project:
You are allowed to discuss the project in general only with the instructor and with the TAs. The final solution and write-up must be your own.
Thursday December 3. (related files)
Midterm Exams:
You are required to work alone and for only the specified time period.
Thursday October 1. NO formula sheet. STATISTICS
Tuesday November 3. ONE handwritten formula sheet allowed. STATISTICS
Prerequisites:
Students must have passed Math 31, or know the equivalent calculus. Students should be able to get derivatives and integrals of standard functions (exponentials, polynomials, logarithms) and must understand the basic applications of calculus. No previous statistical knowledge or background is assumed.
Grading:
The final grade will be based on the final exam (25%), two midterm exams (20% each), lab score (15%), homework (15%), and project (5%).
Computing:
We will use the statistical software package JMP-IN (Version 7) in labs and for the final project. You can download JMP-IN free from the Duke OIT web site. It is also available on the PCs in 01 Old Chemistry Building and in several other public PC lab clusters.
Academic Honesty:
You are expected to abide by Duke's Community Standard for all work for this course. Violations will be reported to the Dean of Students for adjudication; the minimum penalty for cheating is failure in this course.
Missed Work:
Missed labs, homework, midterms and project are excused only by presenting an official Dean's excuse. You are not allowed to present more than 1 official excuse. Some rare exceptions allowed for missed labs and homework. Exceedances will be graded zero.
  • After the missed lab or homework has been officially excused, you still have to handle it, within a week, to your TA.
  • After the missed project has been officially excused, you still have to handle it, within 2 days, to your instructor.
  • After the missed midterm exam has been officially excused, you need to contact the instructor as soon as you can. Normally, there is a     make-up exam 2 days later. If you cannot make it to the make-up exam, your final exam will account for the missed midterm too.
    • Friday Session:
    In the Lab, you are allowed and encouraged to help each other, but each person must complete the lab report on their own. A selection of homework problems will be collected, and a computing lab will follow on most Fridays. Notice that you are allowed to discuss the homework in general, but the final solution and write-up must be your own. JMP labs (courtesy of Jerry Reiter): 
          LAB              HOMEWORK   

    1. Lab 1 (Aug 28)    hw: 1-1, 1-4, 1-6.

    2. Lab 2 (Sep 4)     hw: 1-8, 1-18, 2-6, 2-18 use the original numbers and the exact formula for the IQR, (JMP).

    3. Lab 3 (Sep 11)    hw:  3-8, 3-10, 3-12.

    4. Lab 4 (Sep 18)    hw: 3-24, 3-26, 3-28, Bayes #6.

    5. Lab 5 (Sep 25)    hw: 4-4, 4-8, 4-20ab, supplement 4.4.3 (page 25, "Probability Supplement", Blackboard).

    6. Lab 6 (Oct 9)     hw: 5-2ab, 5-3, 5-4c, 5-8ab.

    7. Lab 7 (Oct 16)    hw: 5-26abcd, 11-3, 11-8bc (JMP).

    8. Lab 8 (Oct 23)    hw: 15-3acd,15-4abf [ignore the testing (H0) in part b-iii], 6-2, 6-6, 6-10, 6-19.  

    9. Lab 9 (Oct 30)    hw: 7-7abc, 7-14 graphs, 7-16.

    10. Lab 10 (Nov 13)   hw: 8-6, 8-11, 8-14, 8-17ab (use both the book's formula and the "score" or "Wilson" interval), 8-21.  
                  Lab 10 will not be graded. Attendance required to get full credit. 

    11. Lab 11 (Nov 20)   hw: 9-2, 9-5 (just for 8-26), 9-6 9-8, 9-14, 9-24, 9-28.

    Documents:
    Possibly useful:

    Calendar (LIKELY TO BE UPDATED!!!): 
    
     August 09	
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa           READINGS                   READINGS                     LABS                  HOMEWORK (see notes above for exercises with a *)
                  1
2  3  4  5  6  7  8
9  10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29           Tu: 1-1,1-2,1-3;           Th: 2-1,2-2,2-3;             Fr: Lab 1;            Fr: 1-1,1-4,1-6;
30 31

    September 09	
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
      1  2  3  4  5            Tu: 2-5,2-6,2-7;           Th: 3-1,3-2,3-3,3-7;        Fr: Lab 2;             Fr: 1-8,1-18,2-6,2-18*;
6  7  8  9  10 11 12           Tu: 3-4,3-5;               Th: 3-6;                    Fr: Lab 3;             Fr: 3-8,3-10,3-12;
13 14 15 16 17 18 19           Tu: 4-1,4-2;               Th: 4-3,4-4;                Fr: Lab 4;             Fr: 3-24,3-26,3-28,Bayes #6*; 
20 21 22 23 24 25 26           Tu: 4-5,4-6;               Th: 5-1,5-2;                Fr: Lab 5;             Fr: 4-4,4-8,4-20ab,supplement 4.4.3*;
27 28 29 30                    Tu: Review; 	 	 	 

     October 09
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
            1  2  3                                       Th: Midterm 1;              Fr: No Lab;         
4  5  6	 7  8  9  10           Tu: Fall Break             Th: 5-3,5-4;                Fr: Lab 6;             Fr: 5-2ab,5-3,5-4c,5-8ab;
11 12 13 14 15 16 17           Tu: 11-1,11-2;             Th: 12-1,12-5;              Fr: Lab 7;             Fr: 5-26abcd,11-3,11-8bc;
18 19 20 21 22 23 24           Tu: 15-1,15-2;             Th: 6-1,6-2,6-3,6-4;        Fr: Lab 8;             Fr: 15-3acd,15-4abf*,6-2,6-6,6-10,6-19;
25 26 27 28 29 30 31           Tu: 7-1,7-2,7-3;           Th: Review;                 Fr: Lab 9;             Fr: 7-7abc,7-14*,7-16;

     November 09
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1  2  3  4  5	6  7           Tu: Midterm 2              Th: 13-1,13-2;              Fr: No Lab;
8  9  10 11 12 13 14           Tu: 8-1,8-2,8-3;           Th: 8-4,8-5;                Fr: Lab 10;            Fr: 8-6,8-11,8-14,8-17ab*,8-21;
15 16 17 18 19 20 21           Tu: 9-1,9-2;               Th: 9-3,9-6;                Fr: Lab 11;            Fr: 9-2,9-5*,9-6,9-8,9-14,9-24,9-28;
22 23 24 25 26 27 28           Tu: 12-2,12-3,12-4;        Th: Thanksgiving            Fr: Thanksgiving           
29 30
 	 	 
     December 09	
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
      1  2  3  4  5            Tu: Review                 Th: Project                 Fr: No Lab;
6  7  8  9  10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19           Su: Final Exam
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
    last updated: September 28, 2009